St Edward's Academic Review 2025

ACADEMIC REVIEW 2025

devastation, another earthquake with a magnitude of 6.3 struck about two weeks later, on 20th February.

Hoogerbeets, earthquakes cannot be predicted with high accuracy and certainty because scientists have not formulated a reliable method for predicting the exact time and location for earthquakes (Baker, 2023). From the above, it is obvious that there were several warning signs and efforts to predict the earthquake prior to its occurrence which were not based on the use of data mining. The observation of abnormal animal behaviour and of the alignment of celestial bodies are not reliable ways to predict earthquakes and other extreme weather events because they do not have scientific bases. Early tremors may be detected by animals seconds or minutes before humans ’ Has data science become more efficient over the years? And how can this be measured? Given the scale of destruction caused by the Haiti and Turkey-Syria earthquakes, it can be said that the efficiency of data science has not improved greatly in the last decade. ‘ The idea that animals can forecast earthquakes is not new. Aelian, a Roman writer, discovered this in 373 BC and wrote about how snakes, mice and insects departed Helike before it was destroyed by an earthquake.

According to Rothery (2023), it can be difficult to predict when and where earthquakes will occur, however warning signs of a major earthquake such as the unexplained phenomenon of earthquake light and unusual animal behaviour can occur days ahead (Rothery, 2023). Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan claimed that it was impossible to prepare for the magnitude of the disaster. Prior to the earthquake, videos emerged of animals behaving abnormally in Turkey and Syria (Elton, 2023). Elton said that the footage showed dogs barking and birds flying in erratic patterns in the days leading up to the earthquake. The idea that animals can forecast earthquakes is not new. Aelian, a Roman writer, discovered this in 373 BC and wrote about how snakes, mice and insects departed Helike before it was destroyed by an earthquake. Early tremors may be detected by animals seconds or minutes before humans. Seismic waves are emitted by an earthquake’s epicenter whereas primary waves, which are the first to be sensed, have little effect on humans. Animals with superior hearing and smell may sense these basic waves seconds or minutes before humans. Elephants and birds, for example, may detect low-frequency sound waves and vibrations caused by tiny foreshocks, but rats may detect high frequency sounds caused by shattering rocks. These signals are untrustworthy and underutilised. There are warning systems in Japan and California that can give a few seconds’ notices, turning traffic lights red and putting trains to a standstill. Unfortunately, this is clearly insufficient time for any kind of evacuation. The Turkish government understands the country lies on active fault zones in the Earth’s crust, with a long history of seismic activity. Nonetheless, the Turkish government permitted builders to disregard earthquake-resilience construction regulations. This shows that Turkey is aware of the earthquake risks but is not taking proactive action to avoid the damage earthquakes cause or to pre-warn the Turkish population about their occurrence. A Dutch earthquake researcher and forecaster named Frank Hoogerbeets has received an increased amount of media attention more recently for accurately predicting the earthquakes in Turkey and Syria based on the alignment of celestial bodies. However, no evidence shows the use of data science and machine learning techniques in predicting the Turkey-Syria earthquake. According to Frank

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