SE Academic Review 2023

32 ST EDWARD’S, OXFORD

“ Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. ”

Unpopularity and exhaustion of the Conservatives

A common maxim used when discussing British election results is ‘Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them’. Whilst there is much debate about the validity of this statement it does point to an underlying truth in many election results and especially in the 1997 election: voters are often motivated to vote for the opposition party by a desire to oust the current unpopular government. By 1997 the Conservative Party as led by John Major was deeply unpopular therefore it is important to examine why, and if in this instance it had any effect in bringing about New Labour’s landslide. failings and the Conservatives’ four consecutive electoral victories was the public perception that the Conservative Party was the party of fiscal responsibility and economic competence while Labour would ‘tax and spend’ and be too lenient with the trade unions, however, by 1997 public perception was reversed (Butler & Kavanagh, 1997, p. 24). This was in part due to the modernisation of Labour and its new fiscally responsible policies; however, the failings of the Major government played a significant role. The moment the Conservatives lost the economic confidence of the British people is widely accepted to be 16th September 1992, Black Wednesday. On that day the Major government raised interest rates from an already high 10% to 12% and then to an inordinate 15% by the end of the day and purchased 27 billion pounds in a failed attempt to stop the devaluation of the pound on the market in order for the pound to remain a part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (Marr, 2017, p. 490). After the crisis the reputation of the Major government was forever damaged. John Major had attached himself politically to the ERM. Britain had first entered the mechanism in 1990 when Major was chancellor. Furthermore, the maintenance of the ERM took centre stage in Major’s 1992 campaign and in the weeks preceding Black Wednesday he made many speeches and declarations of the benefits of Britain’s membership of the Mechanism. Losing the economic argument One of the major factors for Labour’s past electoral

The narrative that the Conservatives could manage the economy well, control inflation and the unions, had helped lead to the previous four Conservative electoral victories and arguably is a narrative needed for a Conservative victory. The crisis of Black Wednesday was held up as a counter to the idea that the Conservatives were competent. Where once Conservative governments seemed to command the economy, on Black Wednesday the markets seemed to control the government. The damage to reputation this caused cannot be overstated and removed the ability of the Conservatives to argue that they could control the economy in the future. Furthermore, the excruciatingly high interest rates imposed on the British people, while they were already within a recession in a failed attempt to keep Britain within a monetary union that did little to improve the economy, highlighted to the British people that the Conservative government would no longer benefit them personally. Although following Black Wednesday the economy had been able to rapidly recover to be out of recession and in a stable position by 1997, the British people seemed not to notice or care. Labour had already transitioned to an economic policy in close alignment with the Conservatives and used the Conservatives’ apparent failures to illustrate that they could be more trusted with the economy. Following Black Wednesday, the Conservatives could not win in any argument with Labour on the economy and thus their primary electoral asset was defunct.